Bitcoin is forming a bottom inside the 2024 box, but another $65,400 rejection could send BTC toward $54,000.
Bitcoin is facing a major test at $65,400 this week as traders watch whether it can finally break through a resistance level that has repeatedly produced fakeouts.
Doctor Profit has described the setup as the “Old Man’s Punch,” and the outcome could determine its next major move.
Fear Has Switched Sides
The current area has seen significant selling in recent weeks. Doctor Profit believes that a brief move above the level would not be enough to confirm a breakout. Bitcoin has already moved above $65,400 several times, only to fall back and produce fakeouts. What the analyst wants to see instead is several weekly closes above the level.
If that happens, he said BTC would break the second major resistance zone of the current bear market. The next important levels are around $77,000- $78,000 and $83,000.
According to the analyst, there has been a shift in market psychology as the biggest fear now sits with stablecoin holders. He explained that fear of missing out has become greater than the fear of another major crash, which could lead to faster and more aggressive accumulation as more investors decide they do not want to remain in stablecoins if Bitcoin rises.
He divides the current risk into two groups. One group is seeking a few percentage points of improvement in its entry, while the other is positioned for the next cycle.
Bitcoin is now playing out inside the same $58,000-$74,000 range it traded in throughout 2024. The range was previously identified as an important reference for the 2026 bear market. The current setup is following that structure, building an accumulation zone between $54,000 and $64,000. The analyst said that these moves suggest that the asset is forming a bottom “exactly inside” the old 2024 box.
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A rejection at this level would change the near-term picture. In that scenario, Bitcoin could target $61,500 with further potential downside toward $54,000. A market bottom can take several months to develop and does not necessarily form within days or weeks.
The macro calendar adds another layer of risk this week. CPI inflation data is due Wednesday, August 12, followed by PPI on Thursday, August 13. Doctor Profit considers CPI the main event, particularly with markets pricing in hike risk rather than cuts. An upside CPI surprise could put pressure on markets.
The next FOMC meeting is not scheduled until September 16, which leaves markets to react to these inflation reports without fresh Fed guidance in between.
Best ETF Week Since April
On the institutional front, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs kicked off August with their strongest weekly performance in months and pulled in $853.54 million over five straight days of inflows. The week began with $170 million on August 3, followed by $211.49 million on Tuesday and $244.42 million on Wednesday.
The figures then slowed to $128.69 million on Thursday and $98.85 million on Friday. But the total surpassed the combined inflows of the previous four weeks and was the best weekly performance since mid-April.
